The Internet has completed it’s 40th anniversary this fall– But how will the next 40 years look like? And by extension, which factors will influence the next 40 years of evolution of the Internet?
The success of the Internet is a victory for Open standards because the Internet is the best example of how Open standards work. For a system to benefit from Open Standards, it must be communication based i.e. more than one person must connect through the system. In contrast, a work of art does not need to be ‘standard’ since it is unique. By the same token, for the standards to be widely available(and today, that means they must be globally applicable), the standard must be simple.
The Internet fulfils that promise by keeping Open standards simple and hence global. Innovation shifts to the layers above the standard, and we are all beneficiaries of that innovation.
But what of the next 40 years? Here are some perspectives:
The Internet as a bearer for democracy
Like many others, I am dedicated to the principle of keeping the Internet Open and Free. This freedom enables many voices to be heard from all over the world. The Wired magazine nominates the Internet for the Nobel peace prize since it is a mechanism to enable the uptake of democracy.
The wired article says:
We have finally realized that the internet is much more than a network of computers. It is an endless web of people. Men and women from every corner of the globe are connecting to one another, thanks to the biggest social interface ever known to humanity.
Digital culture has laid the foundations for a new kind of society. And this society is advancing dialogue, debate and consensus through communication. Because democracy has always flourished where there is openness, acceptance, discussion and participation. And contact with others has always been the most effective antidote against hatred and conflict. That’s why the internet is a tool for peace. That’s why anyone who uses it can sow the seeds of non-violence. And that’s why the next Nobel Peace Prize should go to the net. A Nobel for each and every one of us.
The non generative Internet:
As the Internet matures, there is a greater tendency to ‘manage’ it and this could make it less generative. By that, we mean that developers could be prevented from creating non pre-determined applications. Chris Messina talks of the death of the URL and fears that the Internet could become like the Television (without the browser).
A monopoly
Perhaps, the most interesting and insightful analysis come from Tim O Reilly in The War for the Web. Tim notes that commercially, the Internet (and Web 2.0) favour monopolies – for example one dominant search engine, one dominant online encyclopaedia, one dominant online retailer, one dominant auction site, one dominant online classified site etc. This is because the Internet favours a system that becomes better as more people use it. Tim says that the Internet has two potential models as it goes forward: A series of monopolies (One Ring to Rule Them All) or “Small Pieces Loosely Joined”. The second option is more chaotic and less controlled but is more conducive to innovation. Tim makes a surprising prediction: Microsoft will emerge as a champion of the open web platform, supporting interoperable web services from many independent players, much as IBM emerged as the leading enterprise backer of Linux.
I will track this prediction with interest!
The Mobile Internet
For many in the emerging economies, Mobile will be one of the key drivers of the Internet. The Internet incorporates any device connected via the IP protocol. In that sense, all mobile devices are a part of the Internet.
However, if the Internet is viewed as a set services (and that is often the user’s perspective), then the mobile device could be the primary mode of access to the Internet for a majority of the people in the world. Their experience of the Internet will be very different (social, connectivity, creation, richness etc). As the worlds of Mobile and the fixed domains converge, the fundamentally disruptive nature of IP will be felt. For instance, it is not possible to charge for ‘interconnect charges’ across countries since packets flow freely across geography.
Conclusions
These are some profound perspectives but the key observation is: The Internet grew so fast and became pervasive through the use of Open standards. This is necessary going forward. The generative characteristic of the Internet should be preserved if we are to see continuing innovation.
The era of the Internet was dominated by the PC, which is one of the most Open and generative devices. That ethos of Openness and generativity needs to be preserved in future modes of access to the Internet.
